Showing posts with label Election 2020. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2020. Show all posts

Thursday, January 7, 2021

Scary Poll: Insurrection or Liberation?

Unfortunately, it depends... 

YouGov Direct conducted a poll of 1,397 registered voters Wednesday night about the mayhem in the US Capitol. A majority (62%) of those asked considered the pro-Trump supporters who attacked the Congress a threat to democracy (good!). However, while 93% of Democracts and 55% Independents (only?) saw it that way, only 28% (!!) of Republicans felt the same. In fact, a greater percentage of Republicans (45%) supported the storming of the Capitol than opposed it (43%). Scary stuff. (Click to enlarge).

Wednesday, December 30, 2020

The Class of 2020

The NYT's Michelle Cottle looks back at the political newsmakers of 2020. (But where's Trump? Forgotten already? Nah, he looms large over nearly every member of the class)

Friday, November 27, 2020

The Biden Stock Market Off to a Roaring Start

The stock market is fickle, frequently irrational and increasingly disconnected from the economy it is supposed to reflect...but for anyone keeping score (and the Trump Administration certainly did), the S&P 500's current post-election performance is the one of the best ever:

  

Monday, November 23, 2020

Monday News Roundup

The most interesting things to start the week:

1. More vaccine good newsAstraZeneca-Oxford announced its Covid-19 vaccine was up to 90% effective at preventing the disease. It is part of the new generation of genetics-based vaccines. But unlike the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNtech vaccines, AstaZeneca uses DNA (rather than mRNA) as the platform for delivering genetic instructions to make parts of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Crucially, AstraZeneca's vaccine does not require extreme cold temperatures for storage. It can be stored in a normal refrigerator for six months, which makes distribution relatively straightforward. It is also expected to cost only $3-$4 per dose, compared to $15-$25 for the other vaccine candidates.

2. Another first for Yellen: News leaked today that Biden is expected to nominate former (and first woman) Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, to be Treasury Secretary. She would be the first woman to hold the top Treasury post. 


Markets reacted positively, welcoming back someone they know well. And someone they feel will have their back, focusing more on macroeconomics than regulation.
 


She edged out a couple of other well-regarded contenders. The backstory here:


3. Moving on...(kicking and screaming): President Trump bashed his legal team, who have lost all 22 of the lawsuits they've filed since Election Day and officially authorized the Biden transition process late today.


4. Richie Rich$$$: Elon Musk is now the world's second richest person, with a $127.9B fortune, just ahead of Bill Gate's $127.7B. (But really, what's a couple hundred million dollars? All that separates them is basically a few minutes of trading.)


5. Regrets: We all have them...even those with $14B fortunes. Softbank founder and Japan's second richest person, Masayoshi Son, regrets deeply, embarrassingly, passing up the opportunity to invest early in Amazon and Tesla.
 

 

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Fox News: Hot-mic Edition and Other Knick-Knacks

Straight-talk: Fox News anchor Sandra Smith tells it like it is, oops!


The people have spoken...again: Almost 80% of American believe Biden won the election, including a majority of Republicans. Nearly 6/10 Republicans and almost all Democrats said Biden won.

Ouch...Trump, who? British PM Boris Johnson, formerly one of DJT's closest allies, gushed over Biden and referred to Trump as 'former President' in Parliament

Mr. Popular: The Electoral College ("EC") votes had a lot of drama, mainly because of the order in which votes were counted--Biden is projected to ultimately win by the same EC margin as Trump's 2016 'landside' (306 to 232). But the popular vote is no contest. Biden is leading Trump by over 5 million votes and the difference is expected grow significantly when CA and NY votes are fully counted!

Dems can be "super spreaders" too: Pro-Trump supporters allege a double standard in the media that call out MAGA rallies as health risks but not the huge crowds marking Biden's victory. True...corona doesn't discriminate. Biden supporters do wear masks, but that won't altogether make up for the lack of social distancing. To be fair, CNN has noted (maybe gingerly) the risks these crowds pose. But, to be clear, these aren't organized events; if they were the media would (probably) be equally critical.

Bret Stephens: The Conservative Movement Needs a Reckoning

Stephens, the NYT's oft pilloried (and not undeservedly) conservative columnist, has written a cogent piece on the 2020 elections and state of the Republican party. He is a prominent Never Trumper, but as a loyal and notable conservative his analysis carries weight.

Stephens distills why Trump failed to get re-elected:

Trump lost for two main and mutually reinforcing reasons. The first is that he's immoral--manifestly, comprehensively and unrepentantly.

The immorality didn't just repel his political opponents. It enraged them, inspired them, drove them to the polls...

Trump's immorality also blinded him to his opportunities...He could have spent the past eight months as the nation's consoler in chief...Instead, he went from denier in chief, to quack doctor in chief, to false promise maker in chief-- everything, that is, except the steady and compassionate figure the country desperately needed in the White House.

The second reason Trump lost is that conservatives never tried to check his immorality. They rationalized, excused, enabled and ultimately celebrated it.

Instead of acting as a check against Trump's worst impulses and essentially saving Trump from himself, the Republicans cheered everything did. Stephens decries:

Just as ignorance was strength in George Orwell's "1984," shamelessness became virtue in Trump's G.O.P. The strategy of moral inversion appeared to be vindicated four years ago, since none of Trump's successive scandals prevented his victory.

While there were narrow calculations at work among self-serving conservatives, Stephens points to the development of something more dangerous in recent years:

...political Manichaeism turned into moral nihilism: When the left is always, definitionally, "worse than the right," then the right feels entitled to permit itself everything, no matter how badly it trashes conservative policies (outreach to North Korea), betrays conservative principles (trade tariffs), debase the office (arms-for-dirt with Ukraine) or shames the nation (child separation). Stalinists used to justify their crimes in much the same way.

Finally, Stephens does see the silver lining in all this:

For America, this failure to do much more than flatter, defend and delude Trump these past four years is a blessing. For conservatives, it calls for a reckoning.

I'd agree and say that the election of Biden is a great opportunity for moderate Republicans to reclaim some lost ground--if they are willing. Biden is pre-disposed to compromise and highly experienced in the give-and-take of governance. He'll be sensitive to the political needs of his opponents. While that approach may disappoint many on the Left, ultimately, I think it'll be good for the Democrats and, more importantly, the country.

Another prominent conservative Jonah Goldberg writes change has begun.

Sunday, November 8, 2020

Chappelle Show, Chappelle Show

Dave Chappelle hosted the first post-election SNL last night, just as he did in 2016. He smoked(!) on stage while delivering his 16(!) minutes long monologue. It was a wild, biting, often controversial, commentary on race and politics finishing with hope for reconciliation...similar, though perhaps more trenchant and less polished, than his 2016 set. 

2020 Chappelle



2016 Chappelle



Saturday, November 7, 2020

Conservative Media Election Headlines

Beginning to move on...



...even as the President clearly has not



 

President-elect Biden!





Slowly Losing Our Minds...Networks Waiting Until 100% of Votes In Before Making a Prediction

This has been a very close election...but 4 days after Election Day it's clear that Biden is on his way to winning PA, NV, GA and AZ. In fact, VOX already called the election on Friday!!!

So why are the major networks not doing the same? MSNBC's Joe Scarborough has strong thoughts: the networks are intimidated by Trump. 


Scarborough continues and makes important points about why not calling the election now only adds to the very harm it hopes to lessen.

Vox has a more measured explanation, as does the Daily Kos

It's clear there is some fear, but all this waiting is also GREAT for ratings and the networks would naturally want to stretch this out as far as possible. Fear and greed is nothing new...but at some point it does become a bit ridiculous.

 


Wednesday, October 7, 2020

The Daily Top 5 List (Oct-7-2020)

The biggest, most interesting things of the day:

5. Entertainment: It's a staple of many, if not most, films and I usually wait for it when watching any film: Movie titles said during the movie. Here's a great compilation of 'title drops'.

4. Health: The US Army's latest weapon is strategic napping. Prioritizing sleep for optimal combat performance.

3. Business: Will remote working be the norm? Several big companies certainly expect it to...This Harvard study touts the key benefits of WFM: higher productivity, lower turnover and organizational costs. OOTH, this Stanford professor warns a rushed and unstructured transition can reduce innovation and productivity. Regardless, here are some fascinating WFM statistics.

2. Politics: Kamala v Pence tonite!...Trump loses tax return subpoena appeal...To focus on SCOTUS nomination before election not stimulus deal...

...while Biden is riding high in polls with 27 days to go, particularly in key swing states...FiveThirtyEight crunches the numbers and estimates Biden has 84% chance of winning, Dems have 68% chance of flipping the Senate and 94% likelihood of retaining the House...


1. Science: The 2020 Nobel Prize for Chemistry goes to Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer Doudna for their discovery of the CRISPR gene-editing mechanism (in only 2012!!). The CRISPR tool has quickly revolutionalized biology with its ability to change the DNA of plants and animals with high precision. Its applications are wide ranging, from producing new crops to curing hundreds of diseases...but also controversial with dangers of producing 'designer humans' (He Jiankui).


Tuesday, October 6, 2020

The Daily Top 5 List

The biggest, most interesting news of the day:

5.  The 2020 Nobel Prize for Physics goes to Roger Penrose, Reinhard Genzel, and Andrea Ghez for work on Black Holes

4. Rock legend Eddie Van Halen passes away at 65 from from throat cancer. In memoriam:


3. When Don Jr is the voice of reason...WH outbreak grows

2. Dems going after big Tech...Powell calls for more stimulus...Trump ends stimulus talks, market tanks...

1. New CNN poll has Biden up by 16%, nationally...indicates 90% of voters have made up their minds. The poll was taken between Oct 1-4, after Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis.

TV Debates...Do They Matter?

History suggests they don't. The perception that debates are important to the democratic process is belied by a large study from HBS covering 61elections that show televised debates don't sway voters. They are great political theater and entertainment, but not much more. 

BUT there are exceptions (e.g., Nixon/ Kennedy) and last week's Presidential debate, which seems like a year ago now, was so chaotic it could be having an impact. Trump's performance was so jarring that Biden could be seeing a material post-debate bounce... 

A widely cited WSJ/NBC poll shows Biden up +14% nationally after the first debate-- a 6% jump. Over at FiveThrityEight, an average of 21 national and state polls shows a more modest 1.5% gain for Biden. And critically, Trump's poor showing seems to be have benefited Biden in the swing states. 

Polls are tricky and the news cycle moves so fast in the Trump era (Covid diagnosis/ hospitalization/ drive-by/ discharge) that any gains may be fleeting. But for now, at least directionally, all the polls point to a post-debate Biden bounce.




  

Sunday, October 4, 2020

SNL's Timely Return

SNL kicked off its 46th season with a strong showing in front of a live studio audience, albeit smaller and masked. So much happened in the last 5 days that I wondered how it was going to handle that historic debate fiasco with Trump's Covid diagnosis... 

The show tackled both and didn't hold back in either the cold open or host Chris Rock's monologue. The opening debuted Jim Carrey's uncanny impressions of Biden, where he wistfully mused about science and karma coming together to send a powerful message about the Corona virus. 


 Weekend Update also didn't spare Trump, wishing him a "lengthy recovery".

There were other lighter, funny sketches that also worked. And Megan Thee Stallion's remix of Savage was mesmerizing.    

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

USC Poll: Biden Widens Lead to +11%

Sep 8: The daily USC Dornsife poll shows Biden back in a double-digit lead and the biggest since Aug 30:


FiveThirtyEight  has a snapshot of nine different national polls from Sep 2-8 here. All, except the Rasmussen poll (+2%), shows a healthy >6% lead for Biden. Crucially, Biden is holding on to his lead in the swing states needed to reach 270 electoral votes:



Sunday, September 6, 2020

Key Issues in the 2020 Election

Recent Pew Research poll of Trump and Biden supporters reveals the issues central to registered voters:

1. The Economy: Very important to both camps. The US lost more than 22M jobs in the spring due to Covid-19. These charts highlight how much the economy has recovered and the long road still ahead-- the next few % drop in unemployment will be harder than the last, particularly as permanent job losses rise. The nature of the recovery is also increasing the disparity between the haves and have-nots.

2. Health care: Important, but more so for Biden's (82%) supporters than Trump's (48%). Biden  proposes to build on the ACA which is popular, while Trump has tried to dismantle Obamacare without an alternative.

3. Supreme Court picks: About evenly important to both camps. One of the most polarizing issues. (Need for reform?)

4. Covid-19: Much more important to Biden supporters (82%) than Trump supporters (39%). But could be the most important factor in the 2020 Election. The IHME model has a baseline forecast of 2.8M global deaths by the end of 2020 with 410k US deaths, second only to India (610k). (The much cited IHME model is controversial and often wrong.)

Saturday, September 5, 2020

Biden +9% But Really Only +5%

Biden maintains a steady lead with 60 days to go...but the popular vote is, of course, different from the electoral vote and Biden's true lead is likely smaller--around 5%--because of a tighter races in battle ground states (Florida, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin). But as long as he's up 3% or more in the national polls that should be good enough. Nate Silver crunches the popular/ electoral vote differentials here.

So, who is voting for who? Geographically, at least, there's no surprise. Cities and suburbs to go for Biden, small towns and rural areas for Trump. While rural areas cover 97% of America's land area, they contain only 20% of the population. The Electoral College does not reflect that.



Strife at FOX News Over President's Fallen Soldier Comments

Jeffery Goldberg's Atlantic report about President Trump's disparaging comments about dead US service members is currently the top story (and growing) in the news/ election cycle. Biden has seized on it. Trump has angrily denied the story, highlighting its potential impact.

The report gained further credibility after it was backed up by FOX News journalist Jennifer Griffin. The  President has called for her to be fired. All of which is causing a lot of confusion at Trump-friendly FOX News. FOX's opinion shows and news programs are downplaying the comments, even as colleagues defend Griffin.

Which has (predictability) led to intense speculation about the source of the bombshell story. The press is focusing on former CoS Gen John Kelly. Kelly's silence seeming to confirm the rumors. Generals Mattis, Dunford and Allen also declined to comment. 

Will it have an impact on the election results? Unlikely...battle lines have already been drawn. 

Friday, September 4, 2020

Biden Up +9% in Pioneering Poll

USC-Dornsife daily poll: 51.6% (B) vs 42.1% (T)

Biden has led consistently throughout by 8%-10% since the start of the poll on 8/17. Biggest lead was on 8/25 at +14%. Poll methodology here

This Day in Physics

On Jun 30, 121 years ago, Albert Einstein's groundbreaking paper " On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies " (original German ...