Sunday, September 6, 2020

Key Issues in the 2020 Election

Recent Pew Research poll of Trump and Biden supporters reveals the issues central to registered voters:

1. The Economy: Very important to both camps. The US lost more than 22M jobs in the spring due to Covid-19. These charts highlight how much the economy has recovered and the long road still ahead-- the next few % drop in unemployment will be harder than the last, particularly as permanent job losses rise. The nature of the recovery is also increasing the disparity between the haves and have-nots.

2. Health care: Important, but more so for Biden's (82%) supporters than Trump's (48%). Biden  proposes to build on the ACA which is popular, while Trump has tried to dismantle Obamacare without an alternative.

3. Supreme Court picks: About evenly important to both camps. One of the most polarizing issues. (Need for reform?)

4. Covid-19: Much more important to Biden supporters (82%) than Trump supporters (39%). But could be the most important factor in the 2020 Election. The IHME model has a baseline forecast of 2.8M global deaths by the end of 2020 with 410k US deaths, second only to India (610k). (The much cited IHME model is controversial and often wrong.)

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