Wednesday, September 2, 2020

U.S. Election Most Expensive Event Risk Ever

Hedging against potentially volatility from contested US election results is very, very expensive. Based on VIX futures price, it's currently the most expensive event risk on record. 

Even though most polls show Biden still holding on to a healthy lead, markets are pricing in inconclusive results---across rates, credit and equity...certainly more so than any previous election. That means a clear victory (either by Biden or Trump) should spur a sharp rally on Nov 4.

If not, add Nancy Pelosi as acting President to the mix!


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