Saturday, September 5, 2020

Biden +9% But Really Only +5%

Biden maintains a steady lead with 60 days to go...but the popular vote is, of course, different from the electoral vote and Biden's true lead is likely smaller--around 5%--because of a tighter races in battle ground states (Florida, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin). But as long as he's up 3% or more in the national polls that should be good enough. Nate Silver crunches the popular/ electoral vote differentials here.

So, who is voting for who? Geographically, at least, there's no surprise. Cities and suburbs to go for Biden, small towns and rural areas for Trump. While rural areas cover 97% of America's land area, they contain only 20% of the population. The Electoral College does not reflect that.



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