History suggests they don't. The perception that debates are important to the democratic process is belied by a large study from HBS covering 61elections that show televised debates don't sway voters. They are great political theater and entertainment, but not much more.
BUT there are exceptions (e.g., Nixon/ Kennedy) and last week's Presidential debate, which seems like a year ago now, was so chaotic it could be having an impact. Trump's performance was so jarring that Biden could be seeing a material post-debate bounce...
A widely cited WSJ/NBC poll shows Biden up +14% nationally after the first debate-- a 6% jump. Over at FiveThrityEight, an average of 21 national and state polls shows a more modest 1.5% gain for Biden. And critically, Trump's poor showing seems to be have benefited Biden in the swing states.
Polls are tricky and the news cycle moves so fast in the Trump era (Covid diagnosis/ hospitalization/ drive-by/ discharge) that any gains may be fleeting. But for now, at least directionally, all the polls point to a post-debate Biden bounce.
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