The Perils of Sweden's Herd Immunity Approach

While most European countries locked down their economies in the spring to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, Sweden relied instead on voluntary social distancing. Swedish experts embraced the 'herd immunity' approach believing it would better protect against a second wave in the fall. 

And while it was never a stated part of the strategy, the government did make the case that keeping society open would limit the impact on businesses. That point of view was embraced by those who argued 'the cure cannot be worse than the disease.'

Well, this week Sweden announced it is abandoning its herd immunity strategy as a second wave looms. Cases, hospitalizations and deaths all have spiked in recent weeks. 

Per capita infection rate has exceeded those of Spain and the UK, two hard hit European countries. More than 200,000 Swedes have been infected and at least 6,320 have died.

The failings of Sweden's approach is clear when compared to other Nordic countries that did implement lockdowns. While Sweden has twice the population of its Nordic neighbors (Denmark, Finland and Norway), it has 8x-20x more Covid-19 deaths (through Nov 18): 

(And yes, if you want to be scientifically accurate, the difference in mortality rates between Sweden and other Nordic countries are epidemiologically/ statistically significant.)

Oh, and what of the purported economic benefits? Again, not so much. Sweden suffered the worst downturn in GDP among its neighbors in the second quarter. The governor of Risbank says the economy may even be harder hit than reflected in the official statistics and that the recovery seems to be "slower than we initially thought."    

So, the lesson seems to be...herd immunity doesn't work.