August is over and summer is almost done...so back to school, back to the office (?), and back to volatility?? September is traditionally the worst performing month of the years for stocks; more on that here. But first, let's recap things for the month that just ended. Deutsche Bank (H/T Zerohedge) has a couple of interesting charts (click to enlarge):
August:
Portuguese stocks had a blistering month, up 9% on the month, with about a third of the gains coming in the last five days. Why? Not sure, maybe everyone in the country loved Ronaldo's move to Man U? More generally, it was a pretty, pretty, pretty, good month for equities. Most of the left side of the chart is dominated by stocks, developed and emerging markets alike. In fact, global equities advanced for a 7th consecutive month, with the S&P 500 (+3.0%) and the STOXX 600 (+2.2%) both recording solid gains. On the other hand, the right side of the chart is populated by commodities. Copper, Brent, Silver and WTI were all down 2%-7% on the month, probably due to concerns over slowing demand in China and a stronger dollar.
YTD:
But if you've long commodities, it's still been a great ride so far, particularly for oil speculators. Oil started the year at around $48/ barrel and is now at $69/ barrel and remains the top performer among the major asset classes on a YTD basis, with WTI and Brent crude both up +41%. Copper is up ~25%. However, not all commodities are popular. Gold, and especially silver, are having a tough year...even with the biggest threat of inflation in 30 years? Huh? Damn you, Biiiiiiiiiitcoin!? Equities are right behind oil and copper; particularly bank stocks that are likely to benefit from rising rates, with growing net interest margin.
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