Tunnel Vision: Steph's 100-Foot Shot (Yes, it was real!)

Stephen Curry returned to the NBA Friday after a 5-game injury. But the biggest action of the night seems to have happened before the game. During the pre-game warm-up Curry sank such an outlandish/ ridiculous/insane long-range trick shot, that it left even Caitlin Clarke wondering if it was AI generated. It wasn't! (Though in the past there have been some confusion). Here's the shot, from different angles:

Oh, in the actual game, Curry went to score an impressive 39-points but it was still not enough to win as the Warriors went down 120-127 to the Timberwolves. But who really cares, right?

After the game reporters inevitably asked Curry about the 100-foot shot. “That’s the second one I made,” he said. “I thought it was going to be a better night.” At least we were entertained.

Did Time Magazine Just Jinx the AI Trade?

Last week (on December 12), Time magazine named the 'Architects of AI' as its Person of the Year ("POY"). It's an annual tradition going back to 1928, when the magazine's editors select the person(s) "who wielded the most influence in the previous 12 months." Of course, Time is not the publication it once was; it currently has a weekly circulation of around 1 million, down from a peak of 4.1 million in 2003. But Time's POY cover still attracts significant attention. This year was no different, with thousands of news outlets covering the announcement (just ask Gemini!).

This year's selection was about the group of people who are responsible for developing and bringing the transformative technology of AI to the world (or so they want you to believe). The cover, shown above, has the CEOs of leading tech companies in the AI landscape sitting on a steal beam high above midtown Manhattan replicating the classic 'Lunch atop a Skyscraper' photograph from the 1930s. Left to right, it features: Mark Zuckerberg (Meta), Lisa Su (AMD), Elon Musk (xAI), Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Sam Altman (OpenAI), Demis Hassabis (DeepMind, owned by Google), Dario Amodei (Anthropic), and Fei-Fei Li (Stanford). The picture has a deeper symbolism that we'll get to later. But one thing is for certain, since OpenAI debuted ChatGPT in November 30, 2022, the stock market has been on a tear. The tech-heavy NASDAQ has rallied 102% over the past three years largely on the promise of AI. So now, investors are fretting Time may have just jinxed this stock market rally with its 2025 pick. Call it the magazine-cover curse, but as Jim Bianco of Bianco Research noted in an X Post: Time's POY choice has a history of being "an excellent contrarian indicator." Yikes!

The premise behind the indicator is that when a magazine finally devotes its cover to a person, company, or theme, said subject or topic is usually past its peak. This idea was invented by Paul Macrae Montgomery and consisted of three primary rules:

1. The magazine must be mainstream--not a business/economics/finance publication that routinely features emerging capital market trends. 

2. The cover subject is a widely talked about or experienced concept/theme.

3. There must have been significant asset-price gains leading up to the cover.

Check, check, and check (Time, AI, and a sustained AI-fueled stock market rally)! So, is it time to sell Big Tech? Maybe, but before we do let's look at how well this indicator actually performs. Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets, a financial media and analytics company, has done empirical work on the magazine cover indicator construct, including that of Time's POY edition. There have been 98 such covers since 1928 and Donnelly identified eight prior occasions when a corporate head, CEO, or industry was honored and where there was identifiable stock performance to track. E.g., in 2010 Mark Zuckerberg was selected Person of the Year, but Facebook (as Meta was then known) was still a private company. Below is Donnelly's list of Time's chosen corporations, CEOs, and specific industries and associated stock performance prior to and after being featured (click to enlarge):

Source: Spectra Markets

What Spectra's analysis shows is that 87% of the time companies lost value in the 12 months after being 'honored' with the POY recognition. And 75% of the time they kept losing value even after 24 months. Andy Grove (and Intel) was the exception back in 1997 (oh but how the company's fortunes have changed today). While the results appear to validate the magazine cover curse, they are based on a very small sample size. Can we say these results are statistically significant?

To find out, we defined our null hypothesis (H0) as: The average return of stocks featured on Time is not statistically different from the average return of the S&P 500 (the market benchmark) and tested it to see if we could reject the H0. The results are detailed in the table below (click to enlarge).

Source: Spectra and Slickcharts.com for stock and S&P 500 returns, respectively; Mantabye for all calculations.

As the calculated t-statistic for the 12-month case is greater than the critical t-value, we can reject the null hypothesis for that period (though that's not the case for the following 24-month case). The result provides statistical evidence that being selected Time's POY has a negative impact on subsequent one-year stock performance. So, we'll try to keep a close eye on the performances of AMD, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft in 2026! (Yes, MSFT...while Satya Nadella is not in the above picture, Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI and its stock price has almost doubled in value since ChatGPT was launched.) 

Back to Spectra Market's table and the Time magazine cover. Brent Donnelly provides important context to Chrysler and RCA's POY selections in 1928 and 1929, respectively. In the late 1920s automobiles were a transformative technology that helped propelled markets higher (sound familiar?) and RCA was "at the center of that tech bubble that led to the Crash of 1929." (During the 1920s, RCA stock rose in price 200-fold, one of the largest increases in the history of the stock market--it would go onto lose 98% of its market value by 1932.) 

Oh, and that famous Lunch atop a Skyscraper photo that the Time POY cover recreates...it was taken on September 20, 1932, on a steel beam of...the RCA Building!

NBA: Who Is the All-Time Best Scorer?

The question of who's the GOAT in any sport is always controversial and almost certainly impossible to settle---there are just too many variables (length of career, titles, personal stats, etc.) and intangibles (impact of leadership, clutch plays, teammates, evolution of the game, etc.) that need to be taken together. It is a little easier to compare these different dimensions in isolation, particularly something like scoring. 

Lebron James is the highest scorer in NBA history. As of Nov 18 2025, he's made 42,915 points. The next highest scorer is Kareem Abdul Jabbar with 38,387 points, followed by Kobe Bryant with 33,643 points. 

Click to enlarge. Source: StatMuse and Mantabye. 

Michael Jordan, who in many people's eyes is the most dominant scorer in NBA history, scored 32,292 points in his career; but he only played 15 seasons in the NBA compared to 22+ for James (as shown above). Jordan's 30.1 average points per game (“PPG”) is substantially better than James' 27.0. Does that mean Jordan is the better offensive player? Not necessarily! Perhaps if Jordan continued to play, rather than retire, effectively, at 36 years of age, his PPG would have come down with age. Who knows? 

Last year we looked at Lebron James' remarkably consistent scoring record over 20+ seasons in the NBA. He has maintained his output at almost the same level throughout his career! He has scored at the same rate in his first five years in the league, as he has in his middle 10 years, and as he has in his last five years. Simply INCREDIBLE! He has successfully adjusted his game in response to age, team, competition, tactics, etc.

In fact, we can only really appreciate James' uniqueness by comparing his career scoring rate to that of the other NBA greats. As shown below, Jordan's average PPG rate peaked early in his career and gradually trended down (albeit from a very high level), similar to the way Kareem's PPG rate moved over time (but Kareem's average PPG rate fell more steeply than Jordan's). If we quantify the trend, Jordan's chart has a slope of -0.49, i.e., on average, for every two years he played he scored 1 point less per game. Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good! By comparison James’ chart has a slope of 0.04, i.e., almost no change in production as his career progressed. Better! The difference with the other great scorers is most stark when you compare average PPG in seasons 16-20. There is a huge drop-off for Bryant and Jabbar, but not for James. Or more aptly, King James? 

Click to enlarge. Source: StatMuse and Mantabye.

(Note, this is an admittedly simplified analysis...that assumes the only variable is age...for example, perhaps Jordan's PPG came down, in part, because he was comfortable sharing more of the scoring responsibilities with his teammates in later years.)       

When Donald Met Zohran...

Yes, that happened! Yesterday, NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani met President Trump at the White House in a highly anticipated face-to-face that was covered extensively by the press, something the media-savvy President noted (see clip below). The two men, seemingly polar opposites, both ideologically and temperamentally, got along well shockingly well, despite the WH press pool's best efforts to stoke drama. Trump was genuinely warm and cordial, lavishing Mamdani with praise and even defending him against questions clearly designed to bait Mamdani. Moreover, he swatted down some of the racists attacks Republicans like Elise Stefanik were making against Mamdani, declaring "I want him to do a great job." Here's the Q&A session with reporters.

While the media was feverishly awaiting/hoping for a "slugfest" (ala the infamous Trump-Zelensky meeting), what they got was a remarkably affable meeting that left both rightwing and liberal media outlets shellshocked. Reporters were incredulously using words like "bizarrely chummy," "lovefest", and "bromance," to describe what they witnessed between a rising political superstar and a famously adversarial President. Here's a summary of the headlines spanning the political spectrum from the liberal Huffpost to the Mamdani-phobic NY Post:

(Click to enlarge)

It was all fascinating to watch and the President affectionately posted selfies on his social media account (even including a picture of Mamdani by himself!). Outlets like AP, CNN, and the Hill provided helpful key takeaways. 

Basically, the winners were:

1. Mamdani, who cemented his status as an important new political figure 

2. Trump, who found common ground with Mamdani on affordability which had contributed to his falling approval ratings

3. New York City, their shared love

The losers, for the time being, were:

1. The GOP overall, whose "hopes of running an anti-Mamdani scare campaign next year just took a big hit, straight from the president."

2. Elisa Stefanik, specifically, who is aiming to take Kathy Hochul's job as NY Governor. She meekly "agreed to disagree" with the President.     

History: NYC Elects Zohran Mamdani!

A historic night: Mamdani to become the first Muslim mayor of NYC, the youngest mayor in over 100 years (at 34 years old), in election with the biggest voter turnout (2+ million) since 1969!!! A Democratic Socialist in the financial capital of the world to boot! And it looks like, despite the tens of millions spent against him by the billionaire class, he will have an outright 50%+ majority win. Mabrouk beta!

MLB: Mr. Shoctober

Last year Shohei Ohtani had one of the greatest offensive games in baseball history. He went 6-for-6 with 3 home runs against the Miami Marlins. Yesterday, in the NCLS Game 4, he had arguably the best game ever. Full stop. He was dominant not only with the bat--hitting 3 home runs---but also with the ball, shutting out the Milwaukee Brewers for six innings with 10(!) strike outs. The epic performance propelled the Dodgers to the World Series to boot!

Here's a highlight of the highlights:

 

Arabs are White, Because Jesus Can't be Brown

The history of Arab American identity is complex. The first major period of Arab migration to the U.S. began in the 1880s and coincided with rising nativism in the country, where Anglo-Saxons worried about "race suicide." The Naturalization Act of 1870 prohibited people of Asian or Native American descent to become citizens, and the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 limited immigration to U.S. after an influx of Chinese workers was blamed for declining wages and economic malaise in the West Coast. Not surprisingly, Arabs didn't wish to be categorized as Asian, which would make them ineligible for citizenship. The issue came to a head in 1909, when a Lebanese-born police officer George Shishim from Venice, California, came before Judge Hutton of the Superior Court of Los Angeles with his naturalization petition. Weeks earlier, his application for citizenship was rejected by an immigration officer, despite Shishim being established resident of L.A. and civil servant, on the grounds his "Arab identity" disqualified him from being white within the meaning of the statute." As noted in a NYU law journal, Judge Hutton initially seemed "persuaded by the Naturalization Examiner’s position, which deemed immigrants from the [Arab] region hostile to both American democracy and Christianity, and thus...[were] inassimilable aliens." Short on persuasive rebuttals, Shishim sought a "Hail Mary" to redeem his prospects for citizenship. He rose from his seat and declared: “If I am a Mongolian, then so was Jesus, because we came from the same land." Since Christianity ranked among the primary hallmarks of whiteness in the U.S. at the time, Judge Hutton accepted Shishim’s appeal that, although an Arab, he was not a Muslim and, in fact, a Christian. As a result, Shishim became "the first immigrant from the Arab World to be naturalized as an American and judicially ruled white by law. 

There were many other important cases of course, including Ex Parte Mohreiz, where a district court in Massachusetts declared all Arabs to be white. But leave it to Arab comedian Sammy Obeid to provide the best recounting of the legal battles of early Syrian Americans in a funny bit that highlights the traditional narrative of Jesus' (perceived) whiteness to reconcile the country's racial and religious characters. 

Economics by Chris Rock

Chris Rock provides critical socio-economic insights by observing places where women don't work...

The March of Progress

In the 1950s, a 5MB storage device weighed over a ton. Today, that’s the size of a typical iPhone photo.

OAN Asks the Hard Questions...Really?

One America News (OAN) is a family-owned, far-right, pro-Trump news channel popular with many in the MAGA base. President Trump also loves the network; so much so, that his administration plans to publish news from OAN on the Voice of America and other U.S.-run media. So, it is salient what plays on OAN.

On foreign policy, MAGA's views on Israel appear to be shifting after Netanyahu's pre-emptive attack on Iran that threatened to embroil the U.S. in another Mideast war. In a further sign of unease with Israeli policies that are at odds with MAGA's "America's First" tenant, OAN host Matt Gaetz (the controversial ex-Congressman and Trump acolyte) ran a segment titled: How Many Americans Do Israeli Settlers Have to Kill Before We Care? The report covered the killing of 20-year old Palestinian-American Saif Musallet in the West Bank that Gaetz called an act of terrorism. Gaetz also talks about broader attacks on Palestinians by Israel with U.S. tax dollars...so, OAN doing hard-hitting news now?

The Resistance Begins with Jerome Powell?

The Federal Reserve is, arguably, the most important financial institution in the world. It is responsible for managing America's monetary policy, monitoring and regulating the nation's banks, and maintaining the stability of the U.S. financial system (and by extension, the global financial system; because what happens in the U.S. never stays in the U.S.). But the Fed is also, by design, a staid and dispassionate institution; run by bland, competent technocrats. It's the last place you'd think to find fodder for The Daily Show. And yet, here was Jason Klepper recently doing an extended segment on Trump's beef with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Klepper jokes that Trump's so angry with Powell, you' think he caught him with [Melania] at a Coldplay concert!! 

Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell stems from the fact he refuses to do the President's bidding and lower interest rates as demanded. Powell is strictly apolitical, which irks Trump no end. After all, Big Law, major media companies, and even the Supreme Court have effectively bowed to Trump. So why not the Fed Chair, who Trump himself appointed? Moreover, Powell has refused to step down before his term is finished next year and has steadfastly maintained he will fight any attempt to remove him. That sounds like a challenge, but Trump realizes that firing a Fed Chair (even if he had the authority to do so) is a huge risk for the economy. Fed independence is a core part of the U.S. financial system and Wall Street has come to Powell's defense. So, is Powell, of all people, the hero the Resistance has been waiting for?

 

Live Aid: The Day Music United the World

Today (July 13), marks the 40th anniversary of that historic event--a bold audacious musical spectacle to raise funds for a "biblical" famine in Ethiopia that would kill 1.2 million people. Conceived and organized by Irish rockstar Bob Geldof, Live Aid "was two epic concerts held in London and Philadelphia" on the same day. Geldof persuaded "many of the world’s most top artists at the time to play for free, including Queen, David Bowie, Madonna, the Who, Elton John, Tina Turner and Paul McCartney." The two shows were seen by over 160,000 people live and by 1.5 billion people on TV in over 150 countries (~a third of the world's population at the time), raising more than $140 million (the government of the UAE, incidentally, was the single biggest donor).

While the horror of that devastating famine is thankfully behind us, Live Aid remains a cultural touchstone. In all 70 artists performed live over 16 hours at Wembley and JFK Stadium. The complete set list for both venues is here. While there were many great performances, by consensus three stand out:

3. David Bowie: Following Queen (see below) at 7:20pm in the evening his set included energetic renditions of TVC-15, Rebel/ Rebel, Modern Love, and a memorable version of Heroes, which became the event's anthem of sorts. Bowie was supposed to play five songs but agreed to cut one "so that his time could be used to show documentary footage of the famine in Ethiopia instead." Bowie quietly introduces the clip (set to the Car's Drive) after Heroes and asks people to send their money in. It was a somber reminder to everyone watching about the gravity of the situation. Apparently, that's when the donations came flooding in.

 

2. U2: Bono was already changing the world, but the band's performance "not only showcased their musical prowess but also cemented Bono as a passionate activist." U2 was set to play at least three songs, Sunday Bloody Sunday, Bad, and Pride. However, Bono famously jumped into the crowd to help/dance with a fan during “Bad,” turning what could have been a musical disaster into an emotional and unforgettable moment. Years later, drummer Larry Mullen remarked: "It was kind of excruciating. We didn’t know whether we should stop, we didn’t know where he was, we didn’t know if he had fallen.” After Bono went AWOL for several minutes the rest of the band heroically filled in a very elongated (11-minutes long) version of Bad that "so searing" it cemented the band's reputation. The downside was it meant they didn't have time to play Pride. And Bono does have one regret from that day.

3. Queen: The best live performance in the history of music? Yeah, everyone agrees it probably was; certainly on that night, at least. Pete Townshend: "Queen were in the middle of a tour, walked out there, took the whole thing, and turned it into an advert for themselves. Dave Grohl: “Queen smoked ’em. They just took everybody. They walked away being the greatest band you’d ever seen in your life, and it was unbelievable.” But it almost wasn't, as Queen initially backed out of playing. They did in the end and rest is history...

Interestingly, all three played almost one after the other. So, it must have been the most electrifying portion of an already amazing event. The Wembley evening playlist was:

U2

Dire Straits

Queen

David Bowie

Elton John

Freddy Mercury & Brian May

Paul McCartney

Band Aid Finale

EU vs USA

There are many cultural differences between Europeans and Americans. But perhaps nothing encapsulates their many dissimilarities than their contrasting views on vacation.

(H/T Sarnia Asset Management)

As the cliche goes, Europeans work to live, and Americans live to work. To each their own.

Happy Birthday: America Turns 249

In celebration of America's birthday, the U.S. Census Bureau ("CB") releases some fun facts every year. E.g., when America declared her independence from Great Britain in July 1776, there were an estimated 2.5 million people* in the 13 original colonies (vs ~7 million in the U.K.); today, per the live U.S. population clock on the CB website, there are over 342.0 million Americans** (vs 69.5 million Britons). Or that in 2024 the U.S. imported $4.7 million worth of American flags and exported(?) $2.0 million worth. Or that in 2024, the U.S. imported $470 million of fireworks. In any case, Happy 4th of July!

*Approximately 450,000 of the 2.5 million were African Americans, who pointedly didn't gain their independence in 1776.

**Approximately 42 million of whom are African Americans. 

Mayor In Da Club?

On Tuesday Zohran Mamdani shocked the political world by upsetting favorite Andrew Cuomo in a landslide to be the Democratic nominee for New York mayor. He took on the billionaire class, the MSM, the Democratic establishment, and bipartisan Islamophobia, and still came out ahead. It was a remarkable outcome given that Mamdani was barely known, even to NYC residents, just a few months ago--polling at 1%. But he quickly gained prominence through hard work, a savvy online presence, and laser focus on making NYC more affordable for the middle class who feel left behind in their own city. A healthy dose of charisma and a great debate performance helped as well. Mamdani's performance was so impressive even critics like MTG and Bill Ackman acknowledged it.

But before he upended Democratic politics, Mamdani was an aspiring...rapper(?) going by the stage name Mr. Cardamom. CNN even played a clip of one of his videos...and just like his campaign, it's fun and positive with a distinctly South Asian flavor. It's called Nani (grandma) and features Madhur Jaffrey--the Julia Childs of India. Enjoy.

Beautiful Day

It was a “beautiful day” for one member of Ireland’s most famous rock band. Until this week, the iconic Irish group was only three-fourth Irish. Guitarist David Howell Evans—better known as the Edge—was actually born in England to Welsh parents and never held an Irish citizenship even though he’s lived in Ireland since he was one. This past Monday he was formally naturalized along with 7,500 other folks. Beautiful day...

Say My Name, Say My Name...

Today is the final day for early voting ahead of Tuesday's Democratic primary election for New York City mayor. Since NYC is a heavily Democratic city, so the winner of the primary will be heavily favored to win the general mayoral election (in November). Andrew Cuomo, the former disgraced NY state governor, is the front runner. But an exciting insurgent campaign from a young, charismatic state senator, Zohran Kwame Mamdani, has shaken up the race. Mr. Mamdani,33, is an Indian American Muslim born in Uganda, who is running on a socialist platform to tackle NYC's most pressing problems: the high cost of living and gaping economic inequality. Mamdani is the son of Columbia University professor, Mahmood Mamdani, and Oscar-nominated filmmaker Mira Nair and has represented New York's 36th State Assembly district in Queens since 2021.  

In the primary debates, Mamdani took Cuomo to task a number of times, no more so when asked why he would be a better candidate that his opponent. After rattling off a multitude of important reasons why he is the better choice, he pointedly corrected Mr. Cuomo that his name is pronounced Mamdani...M-A-M-D-A-N-I. Mic drop...

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Mamdani has been a staunch defender of Palestinian rights for years and has not shied away from his position even as he seeks to be the mayor of a city with almost a million Jews. Not surprisingly he's had to defend himself against allegations of antisemitism. Here Whitney Tilson, another candidate, tries to bait him with the same. But Mamdani gives such an eloquent response that even Tilson seems persuaded. 

Go vote!! Ve a votar!!

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning

It’s been dubbed one of the most dramatic chases captured on film. A BBC crew for Plant Earth II records an iguana running from a nest killer snakes on an unspoiled beach in one of the Galápagos Islands. Incredibly tense:

The Equation of Time

If you took a photo of the sun everyday at the same time for a year and overlayed the photos you'd find that the sun makes a figure eight-like pattern in the sky (i.e. if you observed the sun at noon everyday it will appear in a slightly different position each time that over the course of a year traces a figure-8 path). The phenomenon is known as an "analemma," and is the result of the earth and the sun's relative motions. Another way to explain it is that it is the difference between the actual position of the sun in the sky and the mean solar time measured by our clocks.

Solar time is time measured by earth's rotation relative to the sun, as explained by this Brittanica entry. Apparent solar time is measured by directly observing the position of the sun--as by a sundial. Mean solar time, kept by most clocks, is the time that would be measured by observation if the sun "traveled at a uniform apparent speed throughout the year rather than, as it actually does, at a slightly varying apparent speed that depends on the seasons." The difference between mean and apparent solar time is known as the "equation of time," derived from the medieval Latin aequātiō diērum, or "difference of days." (Back then the word equation referred to reconciliation.)

Anyways, the difference between mean and apparent solar time is related to two phenomena: First, the earth’s axis is tilted 23.5° relative to the plane of orbit (which causes the sun to appear higher or lower in our sky throughout the year) and second the earth moves through its orbit at slightly different speeds in different seasons. The result is captured in the spectacularly cool video below:

Of course, earth is not the only planet to have an analemma. Other celestial bodies have their own analemmas:

1. Mercury: a single point (because a day on Mercury takes exactly two years!)
2. Venus: an ellipse
3. Mars: teardrop
4. Jupiter: ellipse
5. Saturn: teardrop with a teeny-tiny loop at the end
6. Uranus: figure 8
7. Neptune: figure 8
8. Pluto: a very large figure 8 

When Streaming Killed the TV Star

Change is the only constant...in the 1950s television replaced radio as the dominant form of entertainment. Then came cable television and HBO in the 1970s. Then it was the internet...and YouTube in 2005. Since then, broadcast television and cable have been losing ground to streaming services like YouTube, Netflix, Hulu, etc.; first slowly and then quite rapidly. The future that was long anticipated finally arrived last month. The New York Times reports that in May, "more Americans watched television on streaming than on cable and network television combined." It was the first time that happened over a full month.

Looking at the chart above, Americans were still consuming entertainment primarily through television even as late as five years ago. But streaming has made rapid strides in recent years. And ironically, it may be due to Boomers. As the NYT notes, "It’s no surprise that younger viewers were the first to jump to streaming. But another group has since made the leap as well: viewers over the age of 65." They are the fastest growing age group for streaming services, according to Nielsen. Older viewers watch a lot of television and are drawn to free platforms like Tubi, Roku, and Pluto. 

If the streaming vs television race is all but over, the winners within streaming are just as clear. Not all streamers are equal...YouTube is the undisputed king of streaming capturing 12.5% of all viewing time in May, followed by Netflix (7.5%) and Disney (5.0%).

What's next for the winners? Well, Ted Sarandos, Co-CEO of Netflix, says "What we really are focused on is the 80 percent of TV watching that is not on Netflix or YouTube today.”

The ascension of streaming as the primary form television consumption reminds us of the change seen in the music industry a few decades ago. On August 1, 1981 MTV (Music Television) went live and swiftly revolutionized the way people experienced music by playing (back then) music videos 24/7. The impact of a new technology on existing media was captured eloquently in the Buggles' icon video "Video Killed the Radio Star" (which was played heavily in the early days of MTV). And its message applies just as much to the next incumbent technology.   

Bessemer's Anti-Portfolio

Venture investing is hard: 3 out 4 start ups fail with investors losing much not if not all of their money when those 75% of firms liquidate assets. While VCs are always on the lookout for the next big thing, no one can really say whether today's startup will be tomorrow's industry behemoth that makes investors very rich. To improve their odds, VCs will invest in many businesses in a number of markets with the understanding that statistically only a few of their bets will (hopefully) generate big returns.

It's not surprising then that VCs don't like to advertise their losses. They'd much plaster their websites and marketing materials with their successes. And they certainly don't want to remind you of their great misses...companies they passed on that eventually became household names (whose success in hindsight is so blinding obvious, it might give prospective investors pause to hand you any of their money).

Bessemer Venture Partners ("BVP") is refreshingly different. BVP is one of America's oldest venture capital and private equity firms, founded in 1911. Whether because of humility, or the firm's track record, or simply because they think it's clever marketing...BVP maintains a list of (ex-post) game-changing companies they evaluated but decided not to invest in for one reason or another. As BVP quips: "Whatever the reason, we would like to honor these companies —our “anti-portfolio”—whose phenomenal success inspires us in our ongoing endeavors to build growing businesses. Or, to put it another way: if we had invested in any of these companies, we might not still be working."

And the list is (drum roll, please)...

Source: bvp.com

These 16 companies, which include four Magnificent 7 members, had a collective market capitalization of more than $8.5 trillion, as of June 6, 2025, or roughly 1/6 of the value of the entire U.S. stock market.

Thanks for keeping it real BVP.        

Perspectives: Land Inequality

The global population is estimated to be over 8 billion (and perhaps even as high as 10 billion). Regardless, there's a lot of people in the world and it already feels very, very crowded. Just look at Tokyo, Jakarta, Delhi, Shanghai, etc. Imagine how it'll be in 2050 when the global population is anticipated to be 25% higher! Where will people live? Will we run out of space?

The below chart puts some of our demographic challenges into perspective. Excluding Antartica, the sum of the land area across the U.N.'s 193 or so countries is 57.5 million square miles. Roughly half of the world's population live in 20 Asian countries with a combined land area of only 7 million square miles (highlighted in yellow). So, 50% of humanity lives across just 12% of the world's land.  

But that's not all. There is also significant land inequality within nations. Consider China and India, two of the world's most populous countries. About 94% of China's 1.4 billion people live inside 50% of the country's land area. In India, 50% of its 1.4 billion people live on 27% of the country's land in the north. Add in Bangladesh and its 175 million people sitting next to India and below China and you have about a fifth of humanity living across less than 4% of the planet's land--roughly 730 people /square mile! 

Of course, we are not suggesting (by extrapolation) that earth can support 40 billion people! The question of how many people our planet can permanently support is a complex one and hotly debated. Various studies on the subject, based on the idea of "carrying capacity," have produced enormous ranges from 2 billion (were way past that!) to one trillion! Though the majority of studies put the earth's carrying capacity at around 8 billion. But maybe if we could just move people around a little better (immigration!), we might safely be able to support a few billion more! Consider Australia and Canada, they occupy 11% of the world's land area but have just 0.8% of its population!  

Land, labor, and capital...inequality exists across each of these key economic inputs.

PSG are the Champions of Europe

PSG makes history by winning the Champions League final by a record 5-0 margin against Inter Milan. Congratulations Paris, congratulations Qatar!

And the Winner Is…

There were some great goals in the 2024/2025 Premier League season. Here were 10 contenders for the best:

And the winner is…Omar Marmoush’s 30-yard sizzler!

I Heart New York

New York City, "the City," is an amazing place with its iconic skyline, diverse population, and bustling streets filled with ‘organized chaos’. Some people never want set foot anywhere else ("...culture, food, the Park. Why leave?") Not surprisingly, New Yorkers can be a little self-absorbed, as famously depicted by Saul Steinberg's classic 1976 New Yorker cover. 

But 500 years ago? Who could've imagined a small Dutch outpost would become one of the world's most important cities? Well, the guys at SNL believe it was obvious from the start in this delightful clip:

Tale as Old as Time...True as it Can Be

Indeed!

Those are the opening lines to the theme song for Disney's classic animated Beauty and Beast (1991) movie, and later, the 2017 live action version. The movies are based on the 1749 French fairy tale by Gabrielle-Suzanne Barbot de Villeneuve. Fascinatingly, De Villeneuve drew her inspiration from historical events. The real "beast" was a man named Petrus Gonsalvus who born in Tenerife, Spain in 1537. Gonsalvus had a rare genetic condition called hypertrichosis or "werewolf syndrome." It is characterized by excessive hair growth throughout the body, including the face. At a young age Gonsalvus was sent to Henry II of France in a cage as a curiosity. The King however appreciated boy's quiet and calm nature and sought to transform him into a gentleman. 

Gonsalvus became a part of the royal court and would go on to speak, read, and write, in three languages. While his achievements impressed many he was still viewed by most as somewhat less than human. After Henry's death Gonsalvus became the property of the King's widow and de facto ruler, Catherine de' Medici. Catherine sought her own experiment on Gonsalvus, involving "Belle." She wanted to see would happen if her "beast" married a beautiful woman; what kinds of children would they conceive? She found a wife for Gonsalvus, a young maiden also named Catherine, who was the daughter of a royal court servant.

Petrus Gonsalvus met Catherine for the first time on their wedding day. The pair would be married for 40 years and have seven children, four of whom suffered from Gonsalvus' condition, which has dominant traits. Sadly, the four hypertrichosis-stricken children were sent as gifts to other European courts. As a result, the story of the "beauty and the beast" was thus spread across the continent, eventually becoming part of de Villeneuve's tale. 

The Racket: Finance Bros Edition

A couple of funny memes re-making the rounds on LinkedIn this morning...

Private Equity:

Hedge Funds:

Broadcast Yourself…

Yesterday was the 20th anniversary of the first video on YouTube, the world’s biggest social media platform. Originally intended to be a dating tool with videos (obviously?), YouTube quickly revolutionized how we watch, create, and share videos, turning ordinary users into content creators. The NYT has a great article chronicling its biggest moments from Lazy Sunday to Gangnam Style to I am Not a Cat., etc.

Google saw the potential of YouTube early on and snapped it up in 2006 for $1.65 billion, the company's biggest acquisition at the time. Today, YouTube has 2.53 billion active monthly users (behind only Facebook), and more than 60% of all U.S. internet user access the site daily. In 2024, the site generated $54+ billion in revenue and is on track to overtake Disney as the world's biggest media company by revenue in 2025. In fact, analysts estimate that YouTube could be worth as much as $550 billion as a stand-alone company (that would make it the 17th biggest company in world as of April 2025).

And it all started with this unassuming 19 second video from co-founder Jawad Karim: "I am at the Zoo."

DPI is the New IRR? Caveat Emptor...

For the past year, private equity managers have sought to prioritize returning cash to investors after higher interest rates stifled deal activity and exits. The drop in distributions has left many financial institutions that invest in private equity with less money to allocate to future funds. As a consequence, DPI, or distributions to paid-in capital, has replaced IRR, or the internal rate of return as the most important measure of private equity performance—at least for the time being. 

IRR has long been favored by the private equity industry to demonstrate its superiority over public markets. And justify the hefty management and performance fees (?). IRR is a cash-weighted measure of return that takes into account the time value of money, which ROI, or return on investment, does not; which is helpful when committed capital is called over different points of time. However, there are also some unrealistic assumptions underpinning the mechanics of IRR calculations that can make returns appear more attractive than they really are. That effect is compounded by how private equity funds mark their assets. 

The value of an asset is whatever someone is willing to pay for it. But in the absence of an active market for said asset, its value is whatever the fund manager says it is. Now, to be fair, fund managers do consult third-party valuation experts and their valuation processes are usually audited by well-credentialed firms at least annually. Still, as owners and experts on said asset, the fund managers' views carry a lot of weight. And it's not really in their economic interest to aggressively mark things down. So, even when public markets gyrate wildly, private equity valuations tend to remain relatively stable, as fund managers hold out hope for better times. In fact, this is actually an attractive feature of private markets for many investors, to chagrin of others. 

But what if you have to sell? Recently, amidst funding cuts by the Trump administration, the liquidity needs of major university endowments have increased. For example, Yale is reportedly exploring the sale of up to a third of its private equity portfolio. And Harvard tapped the bond market raise $750 million to meet short-term needs. Heck, if multi-billion dollar endowments (like Harvard and Yale with $50.7B and $40.7B of assets, respectively) start selling their massive private equity portfolios to generate liquidity, fund managers are not going to be able avoid price discovery for very long. And investors, long shielded by IRRs, may find actual realized returns, or DPI, are a lot skinnier than they imagined.

King James: Path to 40

Lebron James is the oldest player in the NBA at 40. He's also the first and, so far, the only player in NBA history to cross 40,000 regular season points. He is in his 22nd season in the NBA and going strong. Beyond the championships (4) and league MVPs titles (4), one of the most remarkable aspects of his game is his consistency. James scored his first 10,000 points in the exact same number of games as it took him to go from 30,000 to 40,000 (h/t Ben Golliver):

- 10K in 368 games 

- 10K to 20K in 358 games

- 20K to 30K in 381 games

- 30K to 40K in 368 games

Age is but a number...