Markets: Technology is No Match for Staples

If AI is the future, then Nvidia is surely taking us there. The chip giant, the third biggest company in the world by market capitalization, is up 228% the past twelve months ending April 5, 2024. That's trully impressive. However, there's something decidedly much, much older doing even better--chocolates! The S&P GSCI Cocoa TR Index is up 277% over the same period! Weak crop yields in West Africa due to the effects of El Nino weather patterns are an important driver of the commodity's price surge. Countries such as Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon are responsible for over 70% of the world's cocoa output. On top of climate factors, political instability, poor governmental policies, and thin margins in these countries have deterred investments in new plantations for years, accentuating the supply/demand imbalance. The result has translated into soaring retail chocolate prices. The cost of chocolate prices in U.S. stores increased 11.6% in 2023, about three times higher than CPI (3.4%). Research has long shown chocolate contains compounds, such as phenylethylamine and tryptophan, that lifts moods and produces feelings of happiness. So, if cocoa prices continue to rise, it could make the world a less happy place!

Staples outperforming the best of tech is not unusual. Google (GOOGL) went public on August 19, 2004. Just a few weeks earlier, a decidedly less techie company, Domino's Pizza (DPZ), also IPO-ed. An investment in Google, held through April 5, 2024, would have returned 61x. Pretty, pretty...good. However, an investment in Domino's would have yielded 79x, almost 30% more! People love the internet, but their pizza even more!