Masks Still More Effective Than a Covid Vaccine

The latest forecasts from the widely cited IHME model suggest a hard few months ahead for the US, even with a rapid vaccine rollout. In fact, the best scenario still banks on universal mask usage. 

The chart below shows projected deaths by April 1, 2021 under the four scenarios modeled by IHME (click to enlarge): 

The model doesn't show how effective a combination of these scenarios could be, e.g., rapid vaccine roll-out and universal mask usage. However, widespread vaccination in the near-term may be overly optimistic. Even if the vaccine is as effective as early results suggests, it's of no use if people don't take them. A recent Pew Research survey reveals 4 in 10 Americans don't expect to get the vaccine once available.

The good news is most Americans are using masks. The bad news is they are not all doing so when needed the most. Covid appears to spread most easily not at work or school, but in small social gathersing indoors. And that's when Americans are least likely to wear masks, according to a new poll: